61 pages • 2 hours read
A Life on Our Planet: My Witness Statement and a Vision for the Future
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Part 2, Chapter 11Chapter Summaries & Analyses
Summary: “What Lies Ahead”
Attenborough expands on the tipping point (see Index of Terms) that appears to be on the horizon. If humankind does not come up with an actionable plan of global reach, the consequences will be disastrous. The last wild places might be overrun or uninhabitable due to climate change. He attributes this to what is called the Great Acceleration (see Index of Terms), the unprecedented growth of material wealth, human populations, and technological advancements that has marked the period from after World War II until the present day. Clearly, he argues, this continuing explosion of human populations and of accumulation of wealth is unsustainable. Instead, an equilibrium must be reached; a recognition of the planet’s boundaries—how much human life and development it can sustain—is necessary if the worst results of the Anthropocene are to be counteracted.
He discusses the work of Earth system scientists Johan Rockstrom and Will Steffen in showing the nine planetary boundaries that provide critical thresholds for human development. That is, humanity must keep the planet within these boundaries in order to ensure that life can continue to flourish. He writes: “We have already pushed through four of the nine boundaries,” including increasing levels of pollution; turning wildlands into farmlands; warming the earth; and triggering massive losses in biodiversity (111). Now is the time to address these problems, of which global warming is only one among many, according to Attenborough.
Summary: “2030s”and “2040s”
Attenborough speculates on what might come to pass in the ensuing decades, aided by scientific predictions and models. In the 2030s, the dying off of the Amazon rainforest will continue unabated, a self-perpetuating cycle, which will in turn cause “catastrophic” biodiversity loss (112). This destruction of the rainforest will also lead to other devastating consequences: there will likely be unpredictable flooding, reduced habitable land, refugee crises, low supply of fresh water, droughts, and global threats to food production (113). In addition, the Arctic ice caps will continue to melt, causing sea levels to rise and impacting ocean food chains in potentially devastating ways. The Arctic, like the rainforest, also helps with global warming, as the white ice reflects the sunlight back into space; thus, as its ice melts, its ability to help cool the planet melts away as well.
In the 2040s, should trends continue, natural disasters like floods, landslides, and drought will only become more catastrophic, driving people to flee and animals to die. While people in already warm areas will be disproportionately affected, every species on Earth will suffer the impacts of the melting ice: “The thaw would release this carbon [1,400 gigatonnes], gradually, over many years, turning on a gas tap of methane and carbon dioxide that we would probably never be able to turn off” (115).
Summary: “2050s” and 2080s”
After the release of these gases, the ocean will turn mostly acidic by the 2050s, rendering whole areas devoid of life. He notes: “Some predict that 90 per cent of the coral reefs on Earth will be destroyed in the space of a few years” (116). Without the coral reefs to protect and feed other species, their decline will have a domino effect, causing extinction in other species as well. The acidification of the ocean will also negatively affect the food chain: as plankton dies off, the smaller fish along with mussels and oysters will follow suit; finally, larger predators will also suffer from lack of food sources.
As the ocean goes, so goes the land: “By the 2080s, global food production on land could be at a crisis point” (116). This will be, in part, because of the precipitous decline in insect species: without their pollination services and part in the food chain, crops will likely fail on a large scale. In addition, Attenborough speculates that the “emergence of another pandemic” looms on the horizon (118). This is the result of increased encroachment of humans into wildlife areas, bringing humans in contact with unknown zoonotic diseases.
Summary: “2100s”
Finally, at the turn of a new century, the Earth could face “a worldwide humanitarian crisis—the largest event of enforced human migration in history” (118). Many regions across the globe—from Rotterdam to Ho Chi Minh City to Miami—could become “uninsurable and uninhabitable” because of rising waters and the increase in natural disasters (120). In addition, the continually warming temperatures would leave other areas inhabitable because of heat and drought. This will not only affect humans, of course, but all other species as well: “In the background, the sixth mass extinction would become unstoppable” (120).
Still, Attenborough ends this section, with its dire predictions, on a positive note, sounding a clarion call for change: the Earth on which humanity lives has regenerated itself multiple times throughout geological history. Surely, Attenborough implies, humanity can be rallied to prevent this extraordinary system from breaking down completely.
Chapter 11 Analysis
Attenborough’s intention in this short section is to briefly outline the direst outcomes, utilizing them as catalysts for action. As always, he is on the side of Earth itself: “When the global ecological breakdown does finally settle and we reach a new equilibrium, humankind, for as long as it continues to exist on this Earth, might be living on a permanently poorer planet” (105). Attenborough makes it clear that, in this existence, humanity itself will also be permanently impoverished.
He critiques the attitudes and policies that have created the Great Acceleration, noting that growth cannot increase forever within a closed system: “You look at all these graphs—this one repeating line—and you ask yourself the obvious question: how can this continue? Of course, the answer is that it can’t” (106). He employs an extended metaphor to show the weaknesses, including the capacity for self-destruction, inherent in the Great Acceleration. Humans on Earth are like bacteria in a petri dish; there is eventually a boundary reached—the rim of the dish, the limits of the planet—that prevents further growth. “Earth is a closed system just like the bacteria colony’s sealed dish,” he writes (109). Thus, humanity must work within the boundaries that Earth itself naturally provides.
If this is not addressed quickly, Attenborough argues, the results will be nothing short of catastrophic. He essentially warns his readers that, without immediate action and continuing commitment, the domino effect will indeed be unstoppable. If the methane and carbon dioxide is fully unleashed from the melting ice caps, there will be no turning back. He makes it abundantly clear that all of humankind—including the reader—is implicated, therefore responsible.
Indeed, he also makes it clear that it is not only the environment that is at stake. For example, if the ocean food chain is disrupted by the acidification of the oceans, the end result may be no more fish and no more fishing: “The livelihoods of more than half a billion people would be directly affected, and a ready source of protein that has fed us for our entire history would start to disappear from our diets” (116). If the land crops also fail, due to drought and other environmental disasters, mass starvation is also a possibility. Attenborough reminds his readers that they have a vested interest in confronting the problems of climate change, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem degradation.
Another potential threat wherein humanity has a vested interest is in the increasing likelihood of devastating viral pandemics. Attenborough discusses the link between the need for more farmland to feed a growing population and the rise and spread of novel diseases. In the context of Covid 19, he writes: “The more we continue fracturing the wild with deforestation, the expansion of farmland and the activities of the illegal wildlife trade, the more likely it is that another pandemic will arise” (118). When humans come into closer contact with various wild species, the probabilities of unleashing zoonotic diseases, illnesses that spread from wild animals to humans, increases. Again, Attenborough reminds his readers that they have a personal stake in what happens at home—and in faraway places, like the Amazon rainforest or the Asian market. A pandemic recognizes no international boundaries.
Still, Attenborough’s irrepressible optimism comes through, even in this bleakest of accounts. He uses religious terminology to describe the current Holocene era (see Index of Terms), “our Garden of Eden” (120). It is from this paradise that humanity is slowly emerging, naked and afraid, he implies. However, Attenborough also indicates that humanity need not leave the garden just yet; paradise could still yet be regained: “To restore stability to our planet, therefore, we must restore its biodiversity, the very thing we have removed” (121). Essentially, it is a matter of human resolve, and the problems humanity has created, it can surely fix. He ends this section with a call to action: “We must rewild the world!” (121). That final exclamation point serves to emphasize his enthusiasm and optimism.
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