65 pages • 2 hours read
Diamond lists five major causes that can lead to societal collapse: environmental degradation, climate changes, hostile neighbors, friendly trading neighbors who pull away, and inability to adjust to massive change.
A typical scenario involves a people who cut down their forests, replace them with farms, enjoy a boom in food production and a growth in population, then suffer from soil depletion, alternating floods and droughts, loss of trade, and attacks from outsiders. Despite these dangers, the society continues its wasteful ways, refusing to alter time-honored traditions. Famine and collapse quickly follow, and the civilization all but disappears.
The author also lists 12 types of environmental abuse that can put societies at risk. Eight of these affect all societies, old and new: deforestation, soil problems, water problems, overhunting, overfishing, alien species, overpopulation, and increased per-capita impact of a people on the environment. Four problems also apply to modern societies: human-caused climate change, build-up of toxins, energy shortages, and loss of full photosynthetic capacity.
Deforestation recurs as the single most important type of environmental abuse. The wholesale felling of a region’s trees—for firewood and wood products, and to make room for farms—at first generates a wealth of food and resources. Loss of forests, though, means a lack of exploitable forest prey, while bare soils dry out and erode, causing crop failures. With no new wood products, a society’s ability to maintain its buildings and infrastructure is crippled. A population grown large from earlier bumper crops can no longer feed or maintain itself.
Many of the societies mentioned in Collapse depleted their forests and suffered catastrophic failure, including remote Polynesian islanders, desert Anasazi, medieval Greenlanders, and present-day Haitians. Others, including highland New Guineans, Tikopians, and medieval Japanese, protected their forests and thrived for centuries. Today forests are still clear-cut at alarming rates, with the ill effects most visible in places like Haiti and Australia.
Deforestation remains a significant threat today, but more recent stressors, including oil drilling, hardrock mining, and air and water pollution, have moved toward the top of the list. Recent famines, wars, and trade dislocations, along with climate change induced by massive industrial and automotive emissions, give evidence that Diamond’s five collapse factors still threaten modern societies, perhaps even more so than in the past. Whether today’s nations adapt and survive, or continue to pursue environmental folly and suffer catastrophe, remains to be seen.
Some critics view the collapse of ancient societies as evidence that past peoples simply didn’t have the wisdom or know-how to solve their problems. Critics admit that modern nations have environmental issues but assert that superior technology and information will solve them. The problem with this theory is that many areas in the world already are suffering massive failures, and ecological dislocations are getting worse, not better.
Examples are many and widespread. The over-farmed, overpopulated, starving people of Rwanda in 1994 endured civil war and a mass genocide. Haiti, a land of endemic governmental corruption, has completely deforested its land and now is one of the poorest nations on Earth. China, the most populous country in the world with well over a billion people, suffers from severe and growing environmental insults, including large-scale air pollution, degradation of land and water from industrial chemicals, and giant piles of trash that surround many of its cities.
These problems aren’t limited to developing nations. Australia has long since deforested much of its land, over-farmed its fragile soils, and over-used its marine and river fisheries; droughts from climate change further punish the continent. In America seemingly pristine regions like Montana also struggle with loss of forests and farmlands, while mining operations pollute hillsides and rivers.
Far from solving these problems, the much-vaunted modern technology has instead worsened them. Environmental issues are often much more complex than they appear; it’s no wonder the ancients struggled to deal with them, and sadder still that today’s nations have just as much trouble, if not more, in reckoning with them.
Archaeologists, anthropologists, and other scientists have gleaned a great deal from the remains of collapsed civilizations. This information can prove useful to current societies as they cope with environmental problems that are remarkably similar to the dilemmas faced by the ancients. The failures serve as a guide and a warning, but it is up to today’s peoples to heed those warnings, adjust their behavior, and better harmonize with the world around them.
Diamond asserts that both bottom-up and top-down processes can help fix environmental problems. Bottom-up, community-based actions respond to local problems, while top-down national administration takes into consideration all the interactions between locally stressed ecosystems and accordingly makes big-picture adjustments.
An example of successful bottom-up, community-based decision-making is the island of Tikopia, whose 1,100 citizens participate in community decisions about major issues and cooperate to protect their island’s ecosystems. At the other end is the top-down administration of medieval Japan’s Tokugawa era, when a ruling shogun issued fiats that preserved and revived the island nation’s long-suffering forests, so that today Japan is the most forested nation on Earth.
Each environmental situation is different, and combinations of local and national decision-making will vary; if one process can’t or won’t respond, the other can fill in. Having two approaches, and not merely one, strengthens societies’ ability to respond and adapt to ecological problems, which in turn increases the odds that the world can mend its environmental damage and survive into the future.
Diamond is somewhat pessimistic about the prospects for avoiding worldwide environmental calamity, given the sketchy history of societal responsiveness to human-caused ecological abuse and the sheer size of today’s problems. Yet he is hopeful that people today can learn from the mistakes of the past.
The biggest problem ahead is the per-capita load on the environment. First-world residents make heavy use of energy, agricultural foodstuffs, and consumer items that use polluting processes; this puts a significant and ultimately unsustainable load on the world’s ecosystems. Developing nations want to enjoy similar lifestyles, but the load on the environment from an additional several billion heavy users of energy, food, and consumer products will likely cause major parts of the world’s environment to crash catastrophically.
Hopeful signs for resolutions to these problems include major industrial players’ growing commitment to reducing the pollution they cause; a widening local awareness of the need to take community action to prevent environmental stresses from worsening; and the development of smart systems for conserving and sustaining resources. Industrialized societies also tend to have slower, or even negative, population growth rates; even China may soon reverse its growth.
Humanity is still very much endangered by environmental abuse. Only through concerted action, strong political will, and wise long-term planning will the Earth survive this crisis. As this determination strengthens, there’s a decent chance that people, harkening to the lessons of past failures, will find the path to proper stewardship of the planet’s environment and resources.
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By Jared Diamond